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Big problems are coming our way!
Current situation:
2024 was the warmest year since weather records began, with the global average temperature exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.6 degrees Celsius for the first time. We are now on the fastest path to a rise of plus 3 degrees Celsius, which we expect to reach around 2032.
Therefore, I updated the graph below using artificial intelligence. The currently much faster rising temperatures are presumably related to the current wars and the associated launches of shells and increased missile fire. The increased number of rocket launches to launch satellites into space could also be a reason, as all of these activities have a very direct impact on the Earth's surface and are not initially compensated for by the oceans, like the solar radiation trapped in the atmosphere.
The summary graph of gross national income and average temperature increase clearly shows how our mass production, the transport of goods across the world's oceans by ships powered by crude oil, and our other fossil-fuel-based activities such as air and road traffic affect the temperature. In this summary graph, we can see that economic development (purple line) and the current temperature (red line) mostly develop in parallel. Thus, we see, on the one hand, the precise connection between economic growth and global warming, which is primarily due to the senseless mass production of low-quality and short-lived products, but also, on the other hand, the compensating effect of the world's oceans. The graph also clearly shows how devastatingly direct wars are reflected in the Earth's surface temperature.
Water temperature is generally much lower than air temperature; we know this from swimming pools; this is how the oceans were able to absorb the air temperature well and thus reduce it. But little by little, the oceans charged up and now, with the highest bidder, have a temperature of over 30°気. The Mediterranean Sea in particular is very warm, and the temperature is stored there for a very long time, including through the winter. Now the oceans can no longer compensate for the global warming as well. The end of the compensation period was actually not supposed to be reached until 2050, but the end has apparently been reached much earlier.
Century Floods: A New Tipping Point Has Been Reached
A new worrying phenomenon is the so-called "century floods." These probably began around 1993, and since then, there has been one of these supposed "century events" almost every year.
Starting in 2020, the number of events has increased steadily; instead of one event, there are now several per year. In 2020 and 2021, there were eight such events each year.
But by 2022, we'll have several so-called "once-in-a-century floods" every year, practically everywhere in the world, with a total of over 36 incidents.
2023 was unexpectedly the year of "once-in-a-century floods," leaving hundreds of thousands homeless, with many deaths, and 56 incidents recorded around the world.
2024 was similarly catastrophic, with 58 incidents this year. At least, that's not another exponential increase, but the events were the most severe so far, with approximately 600 deaths and just as many injuries.
The correlation is clear: the oceans are now charged to 30°C and the temperature trapped under the CO2 is reflected directly in the air, the compensating power of the oceans is no longer there. As a result, the surface water evaporates much faster and the hot air can absorb much more water, which then falls as heavy rain somewhere where the wind carries the clouds.
We have unfortunately to accept that these disasters are becoming more and more frequent, more severe and affecting more and larger areas.
The results of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro
Nothing in the pipeline except vague statements
The heads of state and government of the leading industrialized and emerging countries want to work towards effective taxation of the super-rich in the future. They want try to work together to ensure that very wealthy private individuals are taxed effectively. Mechanisms should be developed to combat tax avoidance.
We will set a tax on the rich at X% of income or something similar? Nothing!
A global alliance against hunger and poverty has been launched. There is no lack of knowledge or resources, but rather a lack of political will to fight hunger, says the final declaration.
We will pay X trillion dollars to alleviate hunger or something similar? Nothing!
The 20 industrialized and emerging countries also reaffirmed the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to *1.5 degrees. There are also only vague statements on the question of financing. The heads of state and government mention an unnamed sum of trillions of dollars that should come from various sources.
COP 29 final declaration
Once again, just SpongeBob SquarePants
In the dispute at the UN climate conference in Baku over increasing climate aid for poorer countries, the presidency has presented a resolution.
The countries have agreed on a new financial target of 300 billion US dollars per year, which is to be achieved from 2035. The rest is to come from so-called environmental aid banks, but without any specific amounts.
Other points of contention remain unresolved in the ten-page paper. For example, there is no clear determination on the question of whether only industrialized countries will continue to be donors or whether wealthy emerging countries such as China and the rich Gulf states will also be encouraged to make payments.
The last GCP Report
A new record value for CO2 emissions will also be set in 2023
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) published its annual carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels for 2023 in December.
Accordingly, CO2 emissions have increased again by 1.1 percent compared to 2022.
Increasing emissions are measured in China and India, while they only decreased very slightly in the USA and the EU. A slight decrease of just 0.4 percent was also noted in the rest of the world. Conclusion: Global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal and natural gas continue to rise exponentially.
At the same time, deforestation and El Nino conditions contributed to land vegetation absorbing less CO2 this year.
Fires and wars also contributed to rising emissions.
At the same time, the oceans are absorbing less and less CO2.
Overall, global emissions are still increasing exponentially. The measures decided at the climate conference are not sufficient for the necessary climate protection. Even tripling the number of nuclear power plants, which would only be completed in ten years, cannot stop this trend.
Technologies for the subsequent removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (direct air capture and carbon storage) have so far only absorbed 0.01 billion tons of CO2. No solution can be expected from this side either.
The El Niņo effect, fires and the decline in the ability to store CO2 and the temperature of the world's oceans will probably lead to an even faster accumulation of greenhouse gases and increasing Surfacetemoeratures in the future.
The oceans will absorb around 10.8 billion tons CO2 this year and will once again act as a buffer for atmospheric CO2 levels, but the buffer effect is decreasing exponentially. Soils and vegetation on land also absorbed around 10.4 billion tonnes less CO2 this year than in previous years.
Land use changes and deforestation will release around 4.2 billion tons of CO2 in 2023.
In total, fossil emissions and land use changes add up to global CO2 emissions of 40.2 billion tons by 2023.
The current situation:
The temperature of +1.5° Celsius was exceeded again in 2024.
According to researchers, six of nine planetary boundaries have already been far exceeded.
None of the targeted climate targets can be achieved in the foreseeable future and, in all probability, will not be pursued any further.
They say more effort is needed, but wherever you look you not only get no results, but only further deteriorations.
- A tripling of nuclear power is simply more than negated by increasing consumption, for example electric vehicles.
- Direct air capture and carbon storage is mathematically impossible, effective plants would be as big as Tokyo and we would currently need around 40 of them.
- The restructuring of industries is not making any progress because they have to continue to generate exponential increases in profits.
- Land use changes and deforestation continue to increase.
- The buffering effect of the seas is rapidly decreasing and the vegetation on land also absorbs less and less CO2.
- Instead, more and more fossil fuels continue to be consumed.
- Real solutions are hardly available, especially when shipping traffic is increasing exponentially; small successes are immediately negated by increases in traffic.
- Now the so-called “green gases” are to be delivered entirely via shipping.
- It is to be feared that nothing will change in the current situation until 2050. But then it will be too late because than nature's own dynamics will make any action ineffective.
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